COVID-19 mortality prediction in the intensive care unit with deep learning based on longitudinal chest X-rays and clinical data.

OBJECTIVES: We aimed to develop deep learning models using longitudinal chest X-rays (CXRs) and clinical data to predict in-hospital mortality of COVID-19 patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). METHODS: Six hundred fifty-four patients (212 deceased, 442 alive, 5645 total CXRs) were identified across two institutions. Imaging and clinical data from one institution were used to train five longitudinal transformer-based networks applying five-fold cross-validation. The models were tested on data from the other institution, and pairwise comparisons were used to determine the best-performing models. RESULTS: A higher proportion of deceased patients had elevated white blood cell count, decreased absolute lymphocyte count, elevated creatine concentration, and incidence of cardiovascular and chronic kidney disease. A model based on pre-ICU CXRs achieved an AUC of 0.632 and an accuracy of 0.593, and a model based on ICU CXRs achieved an AUC of 0.697 and an accuracy of 0.657. A model based on all longitudinal CXRs (both pre-ICU and ICU) achieved an AUC of 0.702 and an accuracy of 0.694. A model based on clinical data alone achieved an AUC of 0.653 and an accuracy of 0.657. The addition of longitudinal imaging to clinical data in a combined model significantly improved performance, reaching an AUC of 0.727 (p = 0.039) and an accuracy of 0.732. CONCLUSIONS: The addition of longitudinal CXRs to clinical data significantly improves mortality prediction with deep learning for COVID-19 patients in the ICU. KEY POINTS: • Deep learning was used to predict mortality in COVID-19 ICU patients. • Serial radiographs and clinical data were used. • The models could inform clinical decision-making and resource allocation.

Artificial intelligence for prediction of COVID-19 progression using CT imaging and clinical data.

OBJECTIVES: Early recognition of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity can guide patient management. However, it is challenging to predict when COVID-19 patients will progress to critical illness. This study aimed to develop an artificial intelligence system to predict future deterioration to critical illness in COVID-19 patients. METHODS: An artificial intelligence (AI) system in a time-to-event analysis framework was developed to integrate chest CT and clinical data for risk prediction of future deterioration to critical illness in patients with COVID-19. RESULTS: A multi-institutional international cohort of 1,051 patients with RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 and chest CT was included in this study. Of them, 282 patients developed critical illness, which was defined as requiring ICU admission and/or mechanical ventilation and/or reaching death during their hospital stay. The AI system achieved a C-index of 0.80 for predicting individual COVID-19 patients' to critical illness. The AI system successfully stratified the patients into high-risk and low-risk groups with distinct progression risks (p < 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Using CT imaging and clinical data, the AI system successfully predicted time to critical illness for individual patients and identified patients with high risk. AI has the potential to accurately triage patients and facilitate personalized treatment. KEY POINT: • AI system can predict time to critical illness for patients with COVID-19 by using CT imaging and clinical data.

Encephalopathy at admission predicts adverse outcomes in patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection.

AIMS: To determine if neurologic symptoms at admission can predict adverse outcomes in patients with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). METHODS: Electronic medical records of 1053 consecutively hospitalized patients with laboratory-confirmed infection of SARS-CoV-2 from one large medical center in the USA were retrospectively analyzed. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses were performed with the calculation of areas under the curve (AUC) and concordance index (C-index). Patients were stratified into subgroups based on the presence of encephalopathy and its severity using survival statistics. In sensitivity analyses, patients with mild/moderate and severe encephalopathy (defined as coma) were separately considered. RESULTS: Of 1053 patients (mean age 52.4 years, 48.0% men [n = 505]), 35.1% (n = 370) had neurologic manifestations at admission, including 10.3% (n = 108) with encephalopathy. Encephalopathy was an independent predictor for death (hazard ratio [HR] 2.617, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.481-4.625) in multivariable Cox regression. The addition of encephalopathy to multivariable models comprising other predictors for adverse outcomes increased AUCs (mortality: 0.84-0.86, ventilation/ intensive care unit [ICU]: 0.76-0.78) and C-index (mortality: 0.78 to 0.81, ventilation/ICU: 0.85-0.86). In sensitivity analyses, risk stratification survival curves for mortality and ventilation/ICU based on severe encephalopathy (n = 15) versus mild/moderate encephalopathy (n = 93) versus no encephalopathy (n = 945) at admission were discriminative (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Encephalopathy at admission predicts later progression to death in SARS-CoV-2 infection, which may have important implications for risk stratification in clinical practice.

Chronic liver disease not a significant comorbid condition for COVID-19.

To explore the role of chronic liver disease (CLD) in COVID-19. A total of 1439 consecutively hospitalized patients with COVID-19 from one large medical center in the United States from March 16, 2020 to April 23, 2020 were retrospectively identified. Clinical characteristics and outcomes were compared between patients with and without CLD. Postmortem examination of liver in 8 critically ill COVID-19 patients was performed. There was no significant difference in the incidence of CLD between critical and non-critical groups (4.1% vs 2.9%, p = 0.259), or COVID-19 related liver injury between patients with and without CLD (65.7% vs 49.7%, p = 0.065). Postmortem examination of liver demonstrated mild liver injury associated central vein outflow obstruction and minimal to moderate portal lymphocytic infiltrate without evidence of CLD. Patients with CLD were not associated with a higher risk of liver injury or critical/fatal outcomes. CLD was not a significant comorbid condition for COVID-19.

Prognostication of patients with COVID-19 using artificial intelligence based on chest x-rays and clinical data: a retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Chest x-ray is a relatively accessible, inexpensive, fast imaging modality that might be valuable in the prognostication of patients with COVID-19. We aimed to develop and evaluate an artificial intelligence system using chest x-rays and clinical data to predict disease severity and progression in patients with COVID-19. METHODS: We did a retrospective study in multiple hospitals in the University of Pennsylvania Health System in Philadelphia, PA, USA, and Brown University affiliated hospitals in Providence, RI, USA. Patients who presented to a hospital in the University of Pennsylvania Health System via the emergency department, with a diagnosis of COVID-19 confirmed by RT-PCR and with an available chest x-ray from their initial presentation or admission, were retrospectively identified and randomly divided into training, validation, and test sets (7:1:2). Using the chest x-rays as input to an EfficientNet deep neural network and clinical data, models were trained to predict the binary outcome of disease severity (ie, critical or non-critical). The deep-learning features extracted from the model and clinical data were used to build time-to-event models to predict the risk of disease progression. The models were externally tested on patients who presented to an independent multicentre institution, Brown University affiliated hospitals, and compared with severity scores provided by radiologists. FINDINGS: 1834 patients who presented via the University of Pennsylvania Health System between March 9 and July 20, 2020, were identified and assigned to the model training (n=1285), validation (n=183), or testing (n=366) sets. 475 patients who presented via the Brown University affiliated hospitals between March 1 and July 18, 2020, were identified for external testing of the models. When chest x-rays were added to clinical data for severity prediction, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC-AUC) increased from 0·821 (95% CI 0·796-0·828) to 0·846 (0·815-0·852; p<0·0001) on internal testing and 0·731 (0·712-0·738) to 0·792 (0·780-0 ·803; p<0·0001) on external testing. When deep-learning features were added to clinical data for progression prediction, the concordance index (C-index) increased from 0·769 (0·755-0·786) to 0·805 (0·800-0·820; p<0·0001) on internal testing and 0·707 (0·695-0·729) to 0·752 (0·739-0·764; p<0·0001) on external testing. The image and clinical data combined model had significantly better prognostic performance than combined severity scores and clinical data on internal testing (C-index 0·805 vs 0·781; p=0·0002) and external testing (C-index 0·752 vs 0·715; p<0·0001). INTERPRETATION: In patients with COVID-19, artificial intelligence based on chest x-rays had better prognostic performance than clinical data or radiologist-derived severity scores. Using artificial intelligence, chest x-rays can augment clinical data in predicting the risk of progression to critical illness in patients with COVID-19. FUNDING: Brown University, Amazon Web Services Diagnostic Development Initiative, Radiological Society of North America, National Cancer Institute and National Institute of Biomedical Imaging and Bioengineering of the National Institutes of Health.

Machine Learning-Based Prediction of COVID-19 Severity and Progression to Critical Illness Using CT Imaging and Clinical Data.

OBJECTIVE: To develop a machine learning (ML) pipeline based on radiomics to predict Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) severity and the future deterioration to critical illness using CT and clinical variables. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Clinical data were collected from 981 patients from a multi-institutional international cohort with real-time polymerase chain reaction-confirmed COVID-19. Radiomics features were extracted from chest CT of the patients. The data of the cohort were randomly divided into training, validation, and test sets using a 7:1:2 ratio. A ML pipeline consisting of a model to predict severity and time-to-event model to predict progression to critical illness were trained on radiomics features and clinical variables. The receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (ROC-AUC), concordance index (C-index), and time-dependent ROC-AUC were calculated to determine model performance, which was compared with consensus CT severity scores obtained by visual interpretation by radiologists. RESULTS: Among 981 patients with confirmed COVID-19, 274 patients developed critical illness. Radiomics features and clinical variables resulted in the best performance for the prediction of disease severity with a highest test ROC-AUC of 0.76 compared with 0.70 (0.76 vs. 0.70, p = 0.023) for visual CT severity score and clinical variables. The progression prediction model achieved a test C-index of 0.868 when it was based on the combination of CT radiomics and clinical variables compared with 0.767 when based on CT radiomics features alone (p < 0.001), 0.847 when based on clinical variables alone (p = 0.110), and 0.860 when based on the combination of visual CT severity scores and clinical variables (p = 0.549). Furthermore, the model based on the combination of CT radiomics and clinical variables achieved time-dependent ROC-AUCs of 0.897, 0.933, and 0.927 for the prediction of progression risks at 3, 5 and 7 days, respectively. CONCLUSION: CT radiomics features combined with clinical variables were predictive of COVID-19 severity and progression to critical illness with fairly high accuracy.